What is happening in Berezniki -it's anomaly

According to scientists, predict incident modern science can not, and all that happened is beyond its competence.
Recall that in the night of 11 to 12 September, with the filling of the third, the smallest failure in Berezniki, collapsed in a bowl dip already strewn with gravel-sand mixture. As a result, killed 52-year-old employee of JSC "Solikamskstroy" Gennady Parfenov. It was also lost two pieces of equipment - a bulldozer and loader.
Igor Sanfirov, deputy director of the Mining Institute, Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences:
- Theories as to why this happens, we see three or four. One of them - the version of the "hourglass".
We once wrote in the conclusion of the last failure, which, in addition to the underlying processes that take place in a flooded mine are meeting processes, erosion and deformation of the upper part of the section, located above the layer of water protection. They used to say, and now says that there are karst-suffusion processes. The result was a mechanism of "hourglass": bottom - making the top - erosion in the middle - the jumper. Perhaps selling this stuff pours a jumper, and all failed. But, I repeat, is the version. One of the versions.
In order to adequately answer the question of what happened and why, we need time to thoroughly investigate all. Geophysics will be held again eholotsirovanie be explored terrain failure.
Those who raise a panic, I can say that in Berezniki new failure is not formed. Went down backfill material in the latter third of the resulting failures.
Up to the middle of October, we have to make all the necessary research and forecast, to make recommendations for what to do with the failure on.
We also continue to monitor the entire city. Deployed immediately six types of observations. This surveyor observation, space-areal (every 11 days of satellite data comes as the Earth's surface in Berezniki Nevada), geophysical, geochemical. Hydrogeological data are taken directly from the 18 wells drilled in different parts of the city. Conducted seismological monitoring.
All independent experts who have studied our activities, have come to the conclusion that the monitoring is sufficient. All that science can at the moment, we do.
According to researchers, the loss of working at filling the dip is an accident and no relation to the accuracy or inaccuracy of weather does not matter. One of the most obvious reasons for this tragedy - a violation of safety regulations, as filling for some reason, was conducted not by special conveyor (that's peppered second dip), and the machine itself, and then sand and gravel raked in failure bulldozers.
According to Igor Sanfirova, third, the smallest failure has a distinct tendency to "concretionary" with its average, already bombarded with "brother." This is indicated by the observations. As they note, this scenario may be realized as the "go change the properties of the rock mass, there is seismic activity."
Can occur when a merger of the two dips, Sanfirov not dare say, noting only that "space can poke, but when it happens exactly, is unknown."
The growth cone at the surface occurred in the northern part of the failure. This is due to the fact that this part of the failure was covered with the rolled sand-gravel mixture. When she "left", then pulled by appropriate board failure. Actually same collapse happened just in the South, not just in the direction of the buried failure.
All of this, it is believed at the Mining Institute, which once again underlines the fact that the rocks that are above the waterproof layer of seriously degraded.
Baryakh Alexander, CEO of the Mining Institute, Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences:
- Combining failures - this is the most unfavorable prognosis. Definitely, what happens - is an anomaly, examples of which is not in principle. In a world drowning of 90 potash mines, and all - one failure, in the place where he destroyed waterproof stratum where the water began to come into the pit. There are a few examples of the formation of two failure. Rather, one example. We have studied the experience, but we had a third failure.
I think one of the reasons of such processes - is enormous size of the mine. The first time the world is drowning mine of this size - more than 80 million cubic meters. m water comes into it at a rate of 6 thousand cubic meters. m per day, washing away everything in its path.
Another reason - is that Verkhnekamskoye - combined. Here is sylvite, carnallite and rock salt - they all have varying degrees of solubility. Additionally, carnallite is located at the top, close to the surface. His solution is heavier solution formed by rock salt and Silvinit, and so there is a constant mixing of the layers are convective dissolution, which also increases erosion.
How long can keep all of these processes, scientists can not tell.
"While there are, we will continuously monitor, - said Igor Sanfirov. - As long as there are people, we need to constantly monitor the situation. "
At the moment, the Mining Institute experts confidently called three points, causing concern in the medium term. It is (in descending order of risk) - the territory dips area in the forests of the territory of the city and the area above tile transition.
Alexander Baryakh:
- In recent years, our address accusations of incompetence and concealment of information. Yes, we are not magicians, we passed by some of the things that we could not predict. But look at the first failure we "planted" with incredible accuracy. Second - could not be predicted. However, the third has failed.
We are in a unique situation. Now go underground supercomplex processes. We already understand the mechanisms of their action.
As for the allegations. I can say what you like, you can take it as you like, but here it is - a failure. Nobody needs to silence any data. There is no point in lying. So we say always just what we know.